Monday, April 10, 2006

Global Warming?

First, let me say that I don't have a strong opinion on global warming. It does seem clear that there has been a slight increase in average temperatures over the past few decades. But whether or not that past increase will translate into continued warming over the next few decades and centuries, and whether or not this warming is predominantly a man-made phenomenon, I have no idea. I'm not at all convinced by the doomsday scenarios put forth by some proponents of global warming, but neither am I convinced that global warming is completely a non-issue.

Anyway, I think that this article, written by an Australian geologist and published in a British newspaper, gives an interesting perspective on the issue. Here are the first three paragraphs from the article:

For many years now, human-caused climate change has been viewed as a large and urgent problem. In truth, however, the biggest part of the problem is neither environmental nor scientific, but a self-created political fiasco. Consider the simple fact, drawn from the official temperature records of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, that for the years 1998-2005 global average temperature did not increase (there was actually a slight decrease, though not at a rate that differs significantly from zero).

Yes, you did read that right. And also, yes, this eight-year period of temperature stasis did coincide with society's continued power station and SUV-inspired pumping of yet more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

In response to these facts, a global warming devotee will chuckle and say "how silly to judge climate change over such a short period". Yet in the next breath, the same person will assure you that the 28-year-long period of warming which occurred between 1970 and 1998 constitutes a dangerous (and man-made) warming. Tosh. Our devotee will also pass by the curious additional facts that a period of similar warming occurred between 1918 and 1940, well prior to the greatest phase of world industrialisation, and that cooling occurred between 1940 and 1965, at precisely the time that human emissions were increasing at their greatest rate.

Click here for the full story.

Also, here's another article about the sun's role in global warming.

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